Arise…

Timothy C. May

Arise, you have nothing to lose but your barbed wired fences!

Timothy C. May

Wonder In Peace bright mind!

Thanks for the guidance and wisdom!

The world will never know how much they owe you!

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B-Money

Web Dai – B-Money

I am fascinated by Tim May's crypto-anarchy. 

Unlike the communities
traditionally associated with the word "anarchy", in a crypto-anarchy the
government is not temporarily destroyed but permanently forbidden and
permanently unnecessary.

It's a community where the threat of violence is
impotent because violence is impossible, and violence is impossible because its participants cannot be linked to their true names or physical locations.
 
Until now it's not clear, even theoretically, how such a community could operate.

A community is defined by the cooperation of its participants, and efficient cooperation requires a medium of exchange (money) and a way to enforce contracts.

Traditionally these services have been provided by the government or government sponsored institutions and only to legal entities.

In this article I describe a protocol by which these services can be provided to and by untraceable entities.
 
I will actually describe two protocols. The first one is impractical,because it makes heavy use of a synchronous and unjammable anonymous
broadcast channel. However it will motivate the second, more practical protocol.

In both cases I will assume the existence of an untraceable network, where senders and receivers are identified only by digital
pseudonyms (i.e. public keys) and every messages is signed by its sender
and encrypted to its receiver.
 
In the first protocol, every participant maintains a (seperate) database of how much money belongs to each pseudonym. These accounts collectively define the ownership of money, and how these accounts are updated is the subject of this protocol.
 
1. The creation of money. Anyone can create money by broadcasting the
solution to a previously unsolved computational problem. The only
conditions are that it must be easy to determine how much computing effort
it took to solve the problem and the solution must otherwise have no
value, either practical or intellectual. The number of monetary units
created is equal to the cost of the computing effort in terms of a
standard basket of commodities. For example if a problem takes 100 hours
to solve on the computer that solves it most economically, and it takes 3
standard baskets to purchase 100 hours of computing time on that computer
on the open market, then upon the broadcast of the solution to that
problem everyone credits the broadcaster's account by 3 units.
 
2. The transfer of money. If Alice (owner of pseudonym K_A) wishes to
transfer X units of money to Bob (owner of pseudonym K_B), she broadcasts
the message "I give X units of money to K_B" signed by K_A.
 
Upon the broadcast of this message, everyone debits K_A's account by X units and
credits K_B's account by X units, unless this would create a negative
balance in K_A's account in which case the message is ignored.
 
3. The effecting of contracts. A valid contract must include a maximum
reparation in case of default for each participant party to it. It should
also include a party who will perform arbitration should there be a
dispute. All parties to a contract including the arbitrator must broadcast
their signatures of it before it becomes effective. Upon the broadcast of
the contract and all signatures, every participant debits the account of
each party by the amount of his maximum reparation and credits a special
account identified by a secure hash of the contract by the sum the maximum
reparations. The contract becomes effective if the debits succeed for
every party without producing a negative balance, otherwise the contract
is ignored and the accounts are rolled back. A sample contract might look
like this:
 
K_A agrees to send K_B the solution to problem P before 0:0:0 1/1/2000.
K_B agrees to pay K_A 100 MU (monetary units) before 0:0:0 1/1/2000. K_C
agrees to perform arbitration in case of dispute. K_A agrees to pay a
maximum of 1000 MU in case of default. K_B agrees to pay a maximum of 200
MU in case of default. K_C agrees to pay a maximum of 500 MU in case of
default.
 
4. The conclusion of contracts. If a contract concludes without dispute,
each party broadcasts a signed message "The contract with SHA-1 hash H
concludes without reparations." or possibly "The contract with SHA-1 hash
H concludes with the following reparations: ..." Upon the broadcast of all
signatures, every participant credits the account of each party by the
amount of his maximum reparation, removes the contract account, then
credits or debits the account of each party according to the reparation
schedule if there is one.
 
5. The enforcement of contracts. If the parties to a contract cannot agree
on an appropriate conclusion even with the help of the arbitrator, each
party broadcasts a suggested reparation/fine schedule and any arguments or
evidence in his favor. Each participant makes a determination as to the
actual reparations and/or fines, and modifies his accounts accordingly.
 
In the second protocol, the accounts of who has how much money are kept by
a subset of the participants (called servers from now on) instead of
everyone. These servers are linked by a Usenet-style broadcast channel.

The format of transaction messages broadcasted on this channel remain the
same as in the first protocol, but the affected participants of each
transaction should verify that the message has been received and
successfully processed by a randomly selected subset of the servers.
 
Since the servers must be trusted to a degree, some mechanism is needed to
keep them honest. Each server is required to deposit a certain amount of
money in a special account to be used as potential fines or rewards for
proof of misconduct. Also, each server must periodically publish and
commit to its current money creation and money ownership databases. Each
participant should verify that his own account balances are correct and
that the sum of the account balances is not greater than the total amount
of money created. This prevents the servers, even in total collusion, from
permanently and costlessly expanding the money supply. New servers can
also use the published databases to synchronize with existing servers.
 
The protocol proposed in this article allows untraceable pseudonymous
entities to cooperate with each other more efficiently, by providing them
with a medium of exchange and a method of enforcing contracts. The
protocol can probably be made more efficient and secure, but I hope this
is a step toward making crypto-anarchy a practical as well as theoretical
possibility.
 
-------
 
Appendix A: alternative b-money creation
 
One of the more problematic parts in the b-money protocol is money
creation. This part of the protocol requires that all of the account
keepers decide and agree on the cost of particular computations.
Unfortunately because computing technology tends to advance rapidly and
not always publicly, this information may be unavailable, inaccurate, or
outdated, all of which would cause serious problems for the protocol.
 
So I propose an alternative money creation subprotocol, in which account
keepers (everyone in the first protocol, or the servers in the second
protocol) instead decide and agree on the amount of b-money to be created
each period, with the cost of creating that money determined by an
auction. Each money creation period is divided up into four phases, as
follows:
 
1. Planning. The account keepers compute and negotiate with each other to
determine an optimal increase in the money supply for the next period.

Whether or not the account keepers can reach a consensus, they each
broadcast their money creation quota and any macroeconomic calculations
done to support the figures.
 
2. Bidding. Anyone who wants to create b-money broadcasts a bid in the
form of <x, y> where x is the amount of b-money he wants to create, and y
is an unsolved problem from a predetermined problem class. Each problem in
this class should have a nominal cost (in MIPS-years say) which is
publicly agreed on.
 
3. Computation. After seeing the bids, the ones who placed bids in the
bidding phase may now solve the problems in their bids and broadcast the
solutions.
 
4. Money creation. Each account keeper accepts the highest bids (among
those who actually broadcasted solutions) in terms of nominal cost per
unit of b-money created and credits the bidders' accounts accordingly

http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt

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Bitcoin Quotes

Bitcoin Quotes from around the World



“Bitcoin actually has the balance

and incentives right, and that is why

it is starting to take off. “

Julian Assange

Bitcoin has the balance and incentives right

” It isn’t obvious that the world had to work this way.

But somehow the universe smiles on encryption.”

Julian Assange

The universe smiles on encryption

” The innovation is that BTC is hard to shut down. […]

Designed from the ground up to survive under the most adversarial conditions. “

Hasu

Bitcoin is hard to shut down

” Bitcoin is the most successful privacy coin to date. “

Pierre Rochard

Most successful privacy coin to date

” Bitcoin is a mathematical miracle. “

Steve Wozniak (Apple Co-Founder)

Mathematical miracle

” Bitcoin is a technological innovation that happens once a species. “

Trace Mayer

Technological innovation that happens once in a species

” Bitcoin doesn’t care about who you are or what your feelings are.

Bitcoin represents equal opportunity

to participate in a system

not encumbered by

our legacy fiat structures. “

White Rabbit

Participate in a system not encumbered by FIAT

” We’re here to unfuck the money and there’s no stopping us.

Fix the money,

change the world. “

White Rabbit

Fix the Money, Change the World

” Hardly anybody actually

understands money. “

Nick Szabo

Nobody understands money

” When you have a disruptive technology,

they call it a category killer.

Bitcoin is a serial killer –

it’s going to go through

40 or 50 different industries. “

Dan Morehead

Bitcoin is a serial killer

” It’s 21 million or death.”

Robert Breedlove

21 million or death

” It might make sense just

to get some in case

it catches on. “

Satoshi Nakamoto

In case it catches on

” Trusted third parties

are security holes. “

Nick Szabo

Trusted third parties

” There are only going to be

21 million coins,

there are billions of people

in the world, some reasonable percentage of who might

find it interesting to

own a piece of Bitcoin.”

Adam Back

21 Million Coins

” I think it’s essential for a program of this nature to be open source. “

Satoshi Nakamoto

Open Source

” SHA-256 is very strong. It’s not like the incremental step from MD5 to SHA1.

It can last several decades unless there’s some massive breakthrough attack. “

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sha-256

” Code mixed with robust game theory is superior to hierarchical command and control. “

ℭoinsure

Code superior to hierarchical command and control

” Given that money is one half of every commercial transaction and that whole civilizations literally rise and fall based on the quality of their money, we are talking about an awesome power, one that flies under the cover of night. “

Ron Paul

Money… an awesome power

” The world has to adapt to bitcoin, not the other way round. “

Herzmeister

The world has to adapt to bitcoin

” When I first bought bitcoin it took me two years of speculation to understand what Bitcoin really was.

But once I fully had a grasp of it, it was life altering. “

Russell Okung

Bitcoin is life altering

” Many countries stand to gain from Bitcoin’s adoption as it would remove their dependence on the US dollar and provide them with a feasible alternative. “

Misir Mahmudov

Bitcoin a feasible alternative to the US $

” Bitcoin is a optimist bet on the future, a bet on human ingenuity.

Gold is a pessimist bet on the past and, often a bet the end of civilization. “

Rodolfo Novak

Bitcoin a bet on Human Ingenuity

” Everyone has got to believe in something.

Why not believe in something verifiable and unforgeable. “

Hass McCook

Believe in something verifiable and unforgeable

” Open source software is a meritocracy of ideas, not of people.

So people are always talking about “Who controls Bitcoin?”

Good ideas control Bitcoin.

Not people.”

Ben Prentice

Good ideeas control Bitcoin

“Bitcoin is a seed of hope in a society which lost vision years ago and perspective just recently. “

Kim Neunert

Bitcoin a seed of hope

” Bitcoin has an inescapable, unavoidable, and omnipotent magnetism for the brightest and most revolutionary minds on the planet.

I’ve never witnessed anything like it. “

Brandon Bridge

Bitcoin’s magnetism

” This is why proof of work needs to be expensive, if it is cheap you can roll back things easily.

You want it to be very difficult to change history.

The only way to make it difficult to change history is to make the process of writing the current history very expensive. “

Jimmy Song

Difficult to change history

” Bitcoin is like gold but with this magical ability that you

can teleport it.”

Vijay Boyapati

Bitcoin magical ability to teleport it

” Can Bitcoin be stopped?

“Not really, this thing is a beast.

As Mises wrote:

Ideas can only be overcome by other ideas. “

Trace Mayer

Bitcoin cannot be stopped

“I’m not here to fix Bitcoin.”

Michael Saylor

Fix bitcoin

” Buying bitcoin is the most powerful protest an individual can make against the current economic system. “

Luc Dossis

Buying bitcoin is the most powerful protest

” These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow.

And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space. “

Bruce Schneier

Maximums that thermodynamics will allow

” Cryptocurrency is such a powerful concept that it can almost

overturn governments. “

Charles Lee

Cryptocurrency can almost overturn governments

” Bitcoin will do to banks what email did to the postal industry. “

Rick Falkvinge

Bitcoin is the email for the postal industry

” I do think Bitcoin is the first [encrypted money] that has the potential to do something like change the world. “

Peter Thiel

Bitcoin has the potential to change the world

” Bitcoin is the most important invention in the history of the world since the Internet. “

Roger Ver

Bitcoin the most important invention in the history since the Internet

” Gold is a great way to preserve wealth, but it is hard to move around. You do need some kind of alternative and Bitcoin fits the bill. “

Jim Rickards

Bitcoin fits the bill as a way to preserve wealth

” You can’t stop things like Bitcoin.

It will be everywhere and the world will have to readjust.

World governments will have to readjust. “

John McAfee

Bitcoin will be everywhere and the world will have to readjust

” I think the fact that within the bitcoin universe an algorithm replaces the function of the government… is actually pretty cool. “

Al Gore

An algorithm replaces the function of government

“People have made fortunes off Bitcoin, some have lost money.

It is volatile, but people make money off of volatility too.”

Richard Branson

Some lost, some won with Bitcoin

” The ability to create something which is not duplicable in the digital world has enormous value…

Lot’s of people will build businesses on top of that. “

Eric Schmidt

Create something wich is not duplicable

“PayPal had these goals of creating a new currency.

We failed at that…

I think Bitcoin has succeeded on the level of a new currency, but the payment system is lacking.”

Peter Thiel

Bitcoin succeeded as a new currency

” As people move into Bitcoin for payments and receipts they stop using US Dollars, Euros and Chinese Yuan which in the long-term devalues these currencies. “

John McAfee

Bitcoin devalues $ € ¥

” Bitcoin is the Currency of Resistance…

If Satoshi had released Bitcoin 10 years earlier, 9/11 would

never have happened. “

Max Keiser

Bitcoin the currency of resistance

“At its core, bitcoin is a smart currency, designed by very forward-thinking engineers. “

Peter Diamandis

Bitcoin is a smart currency

“The internet is going to be one of

the major forces for reducing

the role of government.

One thing that’s missing but that

will soon be developed,

is a reliable  e-cash.”

Milton Friedman

E-Cash

” Bitcoin is a technological

tour de force. “

Bill Gates

Tour de force

” If you don’t believe it or don’t get it,

I don’t have the time

to try to convince you,

sorry. “

Satoshi Nakamoto

Don’t have the time

“WikiLeaks has kicked the hornet’s nest, and the swarm is headed towards us.”

Satoshi Nakamoto

WikiLeaks

” Lost coins only make everyone

else’s coins worth slightly more.

Think of it as a donation to everyone.”

Satoshi Nakamoto

Lost Coins

” In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee

will become the main compensation

for [mining] nodes.

I’m sure that in 20 years there

will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.”

Satoshi Nakamoto

Transaction fee

” As computers get faster and the total computing power applied to creating bitcoins increases, the difficulty increases proportionally to keep the total new production constant.

Thus, it is known in advance how many new bitcoins will be created every year in the future.

Coins have to get initially distributed somehow, and a constant rate seems like the best formula.”

Satoshi Nakamoto

Coins distribution at a constant rate is the best formula

” Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without

a government, something

necessary and imperative. “

Nassim Taleb

Bitcoin a currency without a government

” Those who believe in Bitcoin also believe in cleverness. “

Arif Naseem

Believe in bitcoin believe in cleverness

” Bitcoin is the most stellar and

most useful system of

mutual trust ever devised. “

Arif Naseem

Bitcoin a system of mutual trust

Cryptocurrency is freedom,

Banking is slavery. “

Arif Naseem

Cryptocurrency is freedom

” Our basic thesis for bitcoin is

that it is better than gold. “

Tyler Winklevoss

Bitcoin better than gold

” I think the whole narrative

of blockchain without bitcoin

will amount to very little. “

Fred Ehrsam

Blockchain without bitcoin

” Every informed person needs to know about Bitcoin because it might be one of the world’s most important developments. “

Leon Louw

Bitcoin world’s most important developments

” Bitcoin is a very exciting development, it might lead to a world currency.

I think over the next decade it will grow to become one of the most important ways to pay for things and transfer assets. “

Kim Dotcom (CEO of MegaUpload)

 

Bitcoin might lead to a world currency

” Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money. “

Paul Buchheit (Creator of Gmail)

Bitcoin the TCP/IP of money

” We have elected to put our money and faith in a mathematical framework that is free of politics and human error. “

Tyler Winklevoss (Co-inventor of Facebook)

Mathematical framework free of politics and human error

” I really like Bitcoin.

I own Bitcoins.

It’s a store of value, a distributed ledger.

It’s a great place to put assets, especially in places like Argentina with 40 percent inflation, where $1 today is worth 60 cents in a year, and a government’s currency does not hold value.

It’s also a good investment vehicle if you have an appetite for risk.

But it won’t be a currency until volatility slows down. “

David Marcus (CEO of Paypal)

Bitcoin a store of value

” [Virtual Currencies] may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system. “

Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the Federal Reserve)

Bitcoin may hold long-term promise

“There are 3 eras of currency: Commodity based, politically based, and now, math based. “

Chris Dixon (Co-founder of Hunch now owned by Ebay, Co-founder of SiteAdvisor now owned by McAfee)

Math based currency

” Bitcoin is here to stay.

There would be a hacker uproar to anyone who attempted to take credit for the patent of cryptocurrency.

And I wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end of hacker fury. “

Adam Draper

Bitcoin is here to stay

” It’s money 2.0, a huge hugehuge  deal. “

Chamath Palihapitiya (Previous head of AOL instant messenger)

Money 2.0

” If there is one positive takeaway from the collapse of Mt.Gox, it is the willingness of a new generation of Bitcoin companies to work together to ensure the future of Bitcoin and the security of customer funds. “

Brian Armstrong (CEO of Coinbase)

Future of bitcoin

” Bitcoin seems to be a very promising idea.

I like the idea of basing security on the assumption that the CPU power of honest participants outweighs that of the attacker.

It is a very modern notion that exploits the power of the long tail. “

Hal Finney

Bitcoin a very promising idea…

” Bitcoin enables certain uses that are very unique.

I think it offers possibilities that no other currency allows.

For example the ability to spend a coin that only occurs when two separate parties agree to spend the coin; with a third party that couldn’t run away with the coin itself. “

Pieter Wuille

Bitcoin enables uses that are very unique

” At its core, bitcoin is a smart currency, designed by very forward-thinking engineers.

It eliminates the need for banks, gets rid of credit cardfees, currency exchange fees, money transfer fees, and reduces the need for lawyers in transitions… all good things. “

Peter Diamandis

Good things

” There is so much potential…

I am just waiting for it to be a billion dollar industry.”

“ Wow, Silk Road actually works ”

Charlie Shrem

Silk Road actually works



With 💚

Satoshi Nakamoto bitcoin quotes

The Times 03/Jan/2009
Wikileaks
Lost coins
Transaction fees
Anonymous vs. Pseudonymous
bitcoin’s convenience against credit cards
Scarce asset
Generate new bitcoin address
Not having bitcoin would be the net waste
Inflation vs. Deflation in bitcoin
Potential for a positive feedback loop
…gain a new territory of freedom…
E-currency based on cryptographic proof
Attractive to the libertarian viewpoint
Root problem with conventional currency

Vires In Numeris

Vires In Numeris

” It isn’t obvious that the world had to work this way.

But somehow the universe smiles on encryption.”

Julian Assange

Nobody yet knows for sure if the universe’s smile is genuine or not.

It is possible that our assumption of mathematical asymmetries is wrong and we find that P actually equals NP, or we find surprisingly quick solutions to specific problems which we currently assume to be hard.

If that should be the case, cryptography as we know it will cease to exist, and the implications would most likely change the world beyond recognition.

Vires in Numeris”

=

“Strength in Numbers”

epii

Vires in numeris is not only a catchy motto used by bitcoiners.

The realization that there is an unfathomable strength to be found in numbers is a profound one.

Understanding this, and the inversion of existing power balances which it enables changed my view of the world and the future which lies ahead of us.

One direct result of this is the fact that you don’t have to ask anyone for permission to participate in Bitcoin.

There is no page to sign up, no company in charge, no government agency to send application forms to.

Simply generate a large number and you are pretty much good to go.

The central authority of account creation is mathematics.

And God only knows who is in charge of that.

Elliptic curve examples (cc-by-sa Emmanuel Boutet)

Bitcoin is built upon our best understanding of reality.

While there are still many open problems in physics, computer science, and mathematics, we are pretty sure about some things.

That there is an asymmetry between finding solutions and validating the correctness of these solutions is one such thing.

That computation needs energy is another one.

In other words: finding a needle in a haystack is harder than checking if the pointy thing in your hand is indeed a needle or not.

And finding the needle takes work.

The vastness of Bitcoin’s address space is truly mind-boggling.

The number of private keys even more so. It is fascinating how much of our modern world boils down to the improbability of finding a needle in an unfathomably large haystack.

I am now more aware of this fact than ever.

Bitcoin taught me that there is strength in numbers.

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Speculative Attack

Speculative Attack

Pierre Rochard

July 4, 2014

Introduction

Bitcoin naysayers1 wring their hands over how Bitcoin can’t go mainstream. They gleefully worry that Bitcoin will not make it across the innovation chasm:

  • It’s too complicated
  • It doesn’t have the right governance structure2
  • The security is too hard to get right
  • Existing and upcoming fiat payment systems are or will be superior
  • It’s too volatile
  • The government will ban it
  • It won’t scale

The response from the Bitcoin community is to either endlessly argue over the above points3 or to find their inner Bitcoin Jonah4 with platitudes like:

  • Bitcoin the currency doesn’t matter, it’s the block chain technology that matters
  • It would be better if the block chain technology were used by banks and governments
  • Bitcoin should continue to be a niche system for the bit-curious, it’s just an experiment
  • Fiat and Bitcoin will live side-by-side, happily ever after
  • Bitcoin is the Myspace of ‘virtual currency’

The above sophisms are each worth their own article, if just to analyze the psycho-social archetypes of the relevant parrots.

A few of the criticisms mentioned earlier are correct, yet they are complete non sequiturs. Bitcoin will not be eagerly adopted by the mainstream, it will be forced upon them. Forced, as in “compelled by economic reality“.

People will be forced to pay with bitcoins, not because of ‘the technology’, but because no one will accept their worthless fiat for payments.

Contrary to popular belief, good money drives out bad. This “driving out” has started as a small fiat bleed.

It will rapidly escalate into Class IV hemorrhaging due to speculative attacks on weak fiat currencies. The end result will be hyperbitcoinization, i.e. “your money is no good here”.

Thiers’ Law: Good Money Drives Out Bad

Historically, it has been good, strong currencies that have driven out bad, weak currencies.

Over the span of several millennia, strong currencies have dominated and driven out weak in international competition.

The Persian daric, the Greek tetradrachma, the Macedonian stater, and the Roman denarius did not become dominant currencies of the ancient world because they were “bad” or “weak.”

The florinsducats and sequins of the Italian city-states did not become the “dollars of the Middle Ages” because they were bad coins; they were among the best coins ever made.

The pound sterling in the 19th century and the dollar in the 20th century did not become the dominant currencies of their time because they were weak.

Consistency, stability and high quality have been the attributes of great currencies that have won the competition for use as international money.

Robert Mundell“Uses and Abuses of Gresham’s Law in the History of Money”

Bitcoins are not just good money, they are the best money.5 

The Bitcoin network has the best monetary policy6 and the best brand.7 

We should therefore expect that bitcoins will drive out bad, weak currencies.8 

By what process will bitcoins become the dominant currency? Which fiat currencies will be the first to disappear?

These are the interesting questions of the day, as the necessary premises for these questions are already established truths.9

1. Fiat Bleed

Bitcoin’s current trend is to increase in value on an exponential trend line as new users arrive in waves.

The good money is “slowly” driving out the bad.

Two factors drive this:

  1. Reduction in information asymmetry – people are learning about Bitcoin and coming to the realization that bitcoins are indeed the best money. Possible overlapping motives:
    • ADHD – compulsive novelty fetichism induced by our post-war consumer culture and/or innate biological processes
    • FOMO – fear of missing out, see Regret Theory and ingroups, aka avarice and status-seeking
    • PISD – post-internet stress disorder, aka “disruption”, “next big thing”, “internet of money”
  2. Increasing liquidity – buying bitcoins is more convenient and has fewer fees attached today than a year ago. One can reasonably predict that this will also be the case a year from now. Why? Because selling bitcoins is a profitable and competitive business. Why? Because people want bitcoins, see above.

Due to group psychology, these newcomers arrive in waves.

The waves have a destabilizing effect on the exchange rate: speculators are unsure of the amplitude or wavelength of adoption, and amateurish punters let their excitement as well as subsequent fear overwhelm them.

Regardless, once the tide has pulled back and the weak hands have folded, the price is a few times higher than before the wave.

This ‘slow’ bleed is the current adoption model, and commentators generally assume one of the following:

  1. Slow bleed never occurred, it’s a fiction based on misleading data
  2. Slow bleed has stopped, the above motives only affect lolbertarians and angry teens
  3. The process will taper off now, as all the super tech-savvy people are already getting on board

My own prediction is that slow bleed has been accelerating and is only the first step.

The second step will be speculative attacks that use bitcoins as a platform.

The third and final step will be hyperbitcoinization.

2. Currency Crises

It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.

If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

” Once it gets bootstrapped, there are so many applications if you could effortlessly pay a few cents to a website as easily as dropping coins in a vending machine. “

Satoshi Nakamoto, 1/17/2009

Slow bleed leads to currency crisis as the expected value of bitcoins solidifies in people’s minds.

At first they are conservative, they invest “what they can afford to lose”.

After 12-18 months, their small stash of bitcoins has dramatically increased in value.

They see no reason why this long term trend should reverse: the fundamentals have improved and yet adoption remains low.

Their confidence increases. They buy more bitcoins. They rationalize: “well, it’s only [1-5%] of my investments”. They see the price crash a few times, due to bubbles bursting or just garden-variety panic sales – it entices them to buy more, “a bargain”. Bitcoin grows on the asset side of their balance sheet.

On the liability side of the Bitcoiner’s balance sheet there are mortgages, student loans, car loans, credit cards, etc.

Everyone admonishes people to not borrow in order to buy bitcoins.

The reality is that money is fungible: if you buy bitcoins instead of paying down your mortgage’s principal, you are a leveraged bitcoin investor.

Almost everyone is a leveraged bitcoin investor, because it makes economic sense (within reason).

The cost of borrowing (annualized interest rates ranging from 0% to 25%) is lower than the expected return of owning bitcoins.

How leveraged someone’s balance sheet is depends on the ratio between assets and liabilities.

The appeal of leveraging up increases if people believe that fiat-denominated liabilities are going to decrease in real terms, i.e. if they expect inflation to be greater than the interest rate they pay.

At that point it becomes a no-brainer to borrow the weak local currency using whatever collateral a bank will accept, invest in a strong foreign currency, and pay back the loan later with realized gains.

In this process, banks create more weak currency, amplifying the problem.

The effect of people, businesses, or financial institutions borrowing their local currency to buy bitcoins is that the bitcoin price in that currency would go up relative to other currencies.

To illustrate, let’s say that middle-class Indians trickle into bitcoin. Thousands of buyers turns into hundreds of thousands of buyers.

They borrow Indian Rupees using whatever unencumbered collateral they have – homes, businesses, gold jewelry, etc.

They use these Rupees to buy bitcoins. The price of bitcoins in Indian Rupees goes up, a premium develops relative to other currency pairs.

A bitcoin in India might be worth $600, while in the U.S. it trades at $500. Traders would buy bitcoins in the U.S. and sell them in India to net a $100 gain. They would then sell their Indian Rupees for dollars. This would weaken the Indian Rupee, causing import inflation and losses for foreign investors.

The Indian central bank would have to either increase interest rates to break the cycle, impose capital controls, or spend their foreign currency reserves trying to prop up the Rupee’s exchange rate.

Only raising interest rates would be a sustainable solution, though it would throw the country into a recession.

There’s a huge problem with the Indian central bank raising interest rates: bitcoin’s historical return is ~500% per year.

Even if investors expected future return is 1/10th of that, the central bank would have to increase interest rates to unconscionable levels to break the attack.

The result is evident: everyone would flee the Rupee and adopt bitcoins, due to economic duress rather than technological enlightenment.

This example is purely illustrative, it could happen in a small country at first, or it could happen simultaneously around the world.

Who leverages their balance sheet and how is impossible to predict, and it will be impossible to stop when the dam cracks.

Which countries are most vulnerable to a currency crisis?

Business Insider provides a helpful list here.

Bitcoins will have to reach certain threshold of liquidity, indicated by a solid exchange in every financial center and a real money supply – i.e. market cap – of at least $50 billion, before they can be used as an instrument in a speculative attack. This will either coincide with or cause a currency crisis.

3. Hyperbitcoinization

A speculative attack that seems isolated to one or a few weak currencies, but causes the purchasing power of bitcoins to go up dramatically, will rapidly turn into a contagion.

For example, the Swiss will see the price of bitcoins go up ten fold, and then a hundred fold.

At the margin they will buy bitcoins simply because they want to speculate on their value, not due to an inherent problem with the Swiss Franc.

The reflexivity here entails that the reduction in demand for Swiss Francs would actually cause higher than expected inflation and thus an inherent problem with the Swiss Franc.

The feedback loop between fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation will throw the world into full hyperbitcoinization, explained by Daniel here.

Conclusion

Bitcoin will become mainstream.

The Bitcoin skeptics don’t understand this due to their biases and lack of financial knowledge.

First, they are in as strong an echo chamber as Bitcoin skeptics.10 

They rabidly search for evidence that confirms their view of Bitcoin.

Second, they misunderstand how strong currencies like bitcoin overtake weak currencies like the dollar: it is through speculative attacks and currency crises caused by investors, not through the careful evaluation of tech journalists and ‘mainstream consumers’.

To honor these soon to be extinct skeptics, the Nakamoto Institute has launched A Tribute to Bold Assertions.


  1. No, seriously, there are people on the Internet spending a non-trivial amount of time writing about a currency they think is going to fail yet continues to succeed beyond anyone’s expectations. I get schadenfreude from their lack of schadenfreude. Granted, a few of them are being paid to write controversial click bait and/or just concern trolling – both activities that I respect and understand.
  2. This is generally stated by people who are in the ‘out-group’ and fantasize about being in the ‘in-group’ through politics/pedigree rather than economic/meritocratic processes. Demographically, they probably overlap with fans of The Secret. Economically, they are without exception bezzlers
  3. Bitcoin has entered its Eternal September, where every person new to Bitcoin thinks they have a unique understanding of Bitcoin and everyone ought to hear about it. There’s an endless flood of newbies ‘concerned’ about such and such ‘problem’ with Bitcoin. The Bitcoin community does these arrivistes a real disservice by taking them seriously instead of just telling them ‘read more’. 
  4. The opposite of Bitcoin Jesus. Bitcoin Jonah is a defeatist, self-sabotaging, and timid ‘man’ who is on a permanent quest to confirm Bitcoin’s weakness. 
  5. Bitcoin is the Best Unit of Account by Daniel Krawisz 
  6. The Bitcoin Central Bank’s Perfect Monetary Policy by Pierre Rochard 
  7. Bitcoin Has No Image Problem by Daniel Krawisz 
  8. Hyperbitcoinization by Daniel Krawisz
  9. If you disagree then either you have not been learning or you have not been engaging in the debate, go back to square one. 
  10. ‘I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.’ – Pauline Kael

Source:

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

What is Hashrate ?

Hashrate Bitcoin network h/s
Bitcoin Hash Rate

Hashrate (Hash per secondh/s) is an SI-derived unit representing the number of double SHA-256 computations performed in one second in the bitcoin network for cryptocurrency mining.

Hashrate is also called as hashing power. It is usually symbolized as h/s (with an appropriate SI prefix).

What is hashing power or hash rate?

The hash rate is the primary measure of a Bitcoin miner‘s performance.

In 2014, a miner’s performance was generally measured in Ghash/s, or billions of hashes per second.

The hash/second unit is also part of a common measure of a Bitcoin miner’s electric efficiency in the term watts /Ghash/s, denoted as W/Ghash/s. As 1 watt is equal to 1 joule/s, this measure can also be expressed as J/Ghash, or joules per 1 billion hashes.

Bitcoin network hash rate

Bitcoin network hashrate chart

The hash/s is also used in calculations of the Bitcoin network’s overall hash rate. Because each miner or mining pool only relays a solved block to the network, the overall hash rate of the network is calculated based on the time between blocks.

While not an accurate measure of network hash rate at any given instance in time, measurements over longer periods can be considered indicative and similar calculations are used in Bitcoin’s difficulty  adjustment.

In January 2015, the network hash rate was around 300 Phash/s, or 300 quadrillion hashes per second.

If you compare a bitcoin mining device to one that is designed to mine, for example, Ethereum, you will notice a very large apparent difference in hash rates.

This is because there are many different algorithms that cryptocurrencies use. They all require different amounts of memory and computing power in order to be mined.

To put it simply, bitcoin and its SHA256 algorithm is considered by today standards to be relatively easy to compute. As a result, a mining device that is still relevant today would need to produce hashes in the terahash range and up.

If we were to compare this to Ethereum, you’ll find that most modern Ethereum mining devices (typically GPU’s) operate in the megahash range.

At first glance, you may think that the bitcoin mining device is significantly more powerful or more productive.

While it’s true that it produces more hashes (of the SHA256 variety), this is because bitcoin hashes are easier to produce computationally.

As a consequence, the network difficulty is significantly higher for bitcoin.

To make things even more confusing, some cryptocurrencies intentionally chose algorithms that can only be mined using a basic CPU.

As a result, mining devices for this network that can produce hundreds of hashes per second are considered to be high and very competitive.

So what does all this mean?

Basically, it means that looking at the hash rate alone doesn’t necessarily tell you the effectiveness of the miner.

You also need to understand the network difficulty, and what the norm is for most mining devices for that particular cryptocurrency.

How can I calculate how many hashes I generate per second?

Your problem breaks down nicely into 3 separate tasks:

  • Sharing a single count variable across threads
  • Benchmarking thread completion time
  • Calculating hashes p/sec
  • Sharing a single count variable across threads

Now that we know that not all hashes are the same we need to know how to calculate the estimated profitability of a miner based on its hash rate.

For this, will need to use a mining profitability calculators, they are available in the Internet.

public static class GlobalCounter

{
public static int Value { get; private set; }
   public static void Increment()
{
Value = GetNextValue(Value);
}
   private static int GetNextValue(int curValue)
{
return Interlocked.Increment(ref curValue);
}
   public static void Reset()
{
Value = 0;
}
}

Before you spin off the threads call GlobalCounter.

Reset and then in each thread (after each successful hash) you would call GlobalCounter.

Increment – using Interlocked.X performs atomic operations of Value in a thread-safe manner, it’s also much faster than lock.

Benchmarking thread completion time

var sw = Stopwatch.StartNew();
Parallel.ForEach(someCollection, someValue =>
{
// generate hash
GlobalCounter.Increment();
});
sw.Stop();
Parallel.ForEach will block until all threads have finished

Calculating hashes per second

...
sw.Stop();
var hashesPerSecond = GlobalCounter.Value / sw.Elapsed.Seconds;

How is the hash rate measured?

Hash rate is a unit measured in hashes per second or h/s and here are some usual denominations used to refer it.

Hash rate denominations:

  • 1 kH/s is 1,000 (one thousand) hashes per second;
  • 1 MH/s is 1,000,000 (one million) hashes per second;
  • 1 GH/s is 1,000,000,000 (one billion) hashes per second;
  • 1 TH/s is 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) hashes per second;
  • 1 PH/s is 1,000,000,000,000,000 (one quadrillion) hashes per second;
  • 1 EH/s is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (one quintillion) hashes per second.

Common Hash rate Conversions:

  • 1 MH/s = 1,000 kH/s;
  • 1 GH/s = 1,000 MH/s = 1,000,000 kH/s;
  • 1 TH/s = 1,000 GH/s = 1,000,000 MH/s = 1,000,000,000 kH/s.

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Door of Opportunity…

Oliver Napoleon Hill (October 26, 1883 – November 8, 1970) was an American  self-help author.

He is best known for his book Think and Grow Rich (1937), which is among the 10 best-selling self-help books of all time.

Hill's works insisted that fervid expectations are essential to improving one's life.

Most of his books were promoted as expounding principles to achieve "success".
Napoleon Hill

Born : October 26, 1883
Pound, Virginia, U.S.

Died : November 8, 1970 (aged 87)
Greenville, South Carolina, U.S.

Occupation : Author,  journalist,  salesman, lecturer

Citizenship : American

Period : 1928–1970

Genre : Non-fiction, self-help


Notable works :

Think and Grow Rich (1937)
• The Law of Success (1928)
Outwitting the Devil (1938)

Spouse :

Florence Elizabeth Horner (1910–1935)

Rosa Lee Beeland (1937–1940?)

Annie Lou Norman (1943–1970)

Children : 3


Hill is, in modern times, a controversial figure.

Accused of fraud, modern historians also doubt many of his claims, such as that he met Andrew Carnegie and that he was an attorney.

Gizmodo has called him "the most famous conman you've probably never heard of".

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Cypherpunk’s Manifesto

A Cypherpunk’s Manifesto

Eric Hughes

by Eric Hughes

” Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age.

Privacy is not secrecy.

A private matter is something one doesn’t want the whole world to know, but a secret matter is something one doesn’t want anybody to know.

Privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world.

If two parties have some sort of dealings, then each has a memory of their interaction.

Each party can speak about their own memory of this; how could anyone prevent it?

One could pass laws against it, but the freedom of speech, even more than privacy, is fundamental to an open society; we seek not to restrict any speech at all.

If many parties speak together in the same forum, each can speak to all the others and aggregate together knowledge about individuals and other parties.

The power of electronic communications has enabled such group speech, and it will not go away merely because we might want it to.

Since we desire privacy, we must ensure that each party to a transaction have knowledge only of that which is directly necessary for that transaction.

Since any information can be spoken of, we must ensure that we reveal as little as possible.

In most cases personal identity is not salient. When I purchase a magazine at a store and hand cash to the clerk, there is no need to know who I am.

When I ask my electronic mail provider to send and receive messages, my provider need not know to whom I am speaking or what I am saying or what others are saying to me; my provider only need know how to get the message there and how much I owe them in fees.

When my identity is revealed by the underlying mechanism of the transaction, I have no privacy. I cannot here selectively reveal myself; I must always reveal myself.

Therefore, privacy in an open society requires anonymous transaction systems.

Until now, cash has been the primary such system.

An anonymous transaction system is not a secret transaction system.

An anonymous system empowers individuals to reveal their identity when desired and only when desired; this is the essence of privacy.

Privacy in an open society also requires cryptography.

If I say something, I want it heard only by those for whom I intend it.

If the content of my speech is available to the world, I have no privacy.

To encrypt is to indicate the desire for privacy, and to encrypt with weak cryptography is to indicate not too much desire for privacy.

Furthermore, to reveal one’s identity with assurance when the default is anonymity requires the cryptographic signature.

We cannot expect governments, corporations, or other large, faceless organizations to grant us privacy out of their beneficence.

It is to their advantage to speak of us, and we should expect that they will speak.

To try to prevent their speech is to fight against the realities of information.

Information does not just want to be free, it longs to be free.

Information expands to fill the available storage space.

Information is Rumor’s younger, stronger cousin;

Information is fleeter of foot, has more eyes, knows more, and understands less than Rumor.

We must defend our own privacy if we expect to have any.

We must come together and create systems which allow anonymous transactions to take place.

People have been defending their own privacy for centuries with whispers, darkness, envelopes, closed doors, secret handshakes, and couriers.

The technologies of the past did not allow for strong privacy, but electronic technologies do.

We the Cypherpunks are dedicated to building anonymous systems.

We are defending our privacy with cryptography, with anonymous mail forwarding systems, with digital signatures, and with electronic money.


Cypherpunks write code.


We know that someone has to write software to defend privacy, and since we can’t get privacy unless we all do, we’re going to write it.

We publish our code so that our fellow Cypherpunks may practice and play with it. Our code is free for all to use, worldwide.

We don’t much care if you don’t approve of the software we write.

We know that software can’t be destroyed and that a widely dispersed system can’t be shut down.

Cypherpunks deplore regulations on cryptography, for encryption is fundamentally a private act.

The act of encryption, in fact, removes information from the public realm.

Even laws against cryptography reach only so far as a nation’s border and the arm of its violence.

Cryptography will ineluctably spread over the whole globe, and with it the anonymous transactions systems that it makes possible.

For privacy to be widespread it must be part of a social contract.

People must come and together deploy these systems for the common good. Privacy only extends so far as the cooperation of one’s fellows in society.

We the Cypherpunks seek your questions and your concerns and hope we may engage you so that we do not deceive ourselves.

We will not, however, be moved out of our course because some may disagree with our goals.

The Cypherpunks are actively engaged in making the networks safer for privacy. Let us proceed together apace.

Onward.

Eric Hughes

 <hughes@soda.berkeley.edu>

9 March 1993


☆ Long Live the CypherPunks ☆


The world is in debt for your bright minds, even if it doesn’t know…

It’s minds like yours that always have changed the face of the earth for a better brighter future !

KUDOS TO YOU ALL !!!




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Mining Profitability Formula



Yes the profitability changes second to second with the price of bitcoin and  you cant use this information to forecast…


Reward = ((HashRate * Block_Reward) / Current_Difficulty) * (1 – Pool_Fee) * 3600

BTC total daily payout is 6.25 BTC * 6 times per hour * 24hours…on average = 900 BTC mined every day. 

That has to be spread out, on average, evenly across then ENTIRE network.  Granted, luck is involved, so it isn’t exactly even, but on average, it should be.

If network is running at 17,608,758 TH/s, and every TH gets an even share of the reward, then that would be 1800BTC / 17,608,758 TH/s = .00010222 BTC/(TH/s).


You then take that figure and multiply by number of TH for miner, and then you get daily BTC revenue ; )